Tuesday Truths - Horizon League and Great West
Going to expand the analysis of per possession statistics today to include the Horizon League and Great West. These numbers are for conference games only. Obviously I have a vested interest in both races, but as you'll see the Chicago teams aren't doing very well in either league.
First off the Horizon League:
Team - Efficiency Margin (per possession) -
1. Butler - .22
2. Wright State - .08
3. Detroit - .07
4. Cleveland State - .05
5. Valparaiso - .01
6. Green Bay - .01
7. Milwaukee - (-.01)
8. Loyola - (-.11)
9. Youngstown State - (-.14)
10. UIC - (-.15)
First off the Horizon League:
Team - Efficiency Margin (per possession) -
1. Butler - .22
2. Wright State - .08
3. Detroit - .07
4. Cleveland State - .05
5. Valparaiso - .01
6. Green Bay - .01
7. Milwaukee - (-.01)
8. Loyola - (-.11)
9. Youngstown State - (-.14)
10. UIC - (-.15)
Loyola and UIC are big underdogs tonight
Loyola and UIC are playing on the road in the Horizon League tonight and it seems like nobody is giving the Ramblers or Flames a chance.
Here are the specifics for the Loyola game at Butler:
On the other hand, if the Flames don't start out hot they're going to have trouble covering this line against a hot-shooting Valparaiso team. Brandon Wood and his teammates beat UIC by 6 in Chicago. The Crusaders can really fill the basket and playing at home will give them a significant advantage. My best guess is that the Crusaders end up covering this line even though UIC has been improving lately.
Here are the specifics for the Loyola game at Butler:
- Line: Butler by 20
- Kenpom: Butler by 19, 73-54, 97% confidence
- Accuscore: Butler by 17.6, 74.0-56.4, won 91.7% of simulations
- Line: Valparaiso by 11.5
- Kenpom: Valparaiso by 14, 78-64, 91% confidence
- Accuscore: Valparaiso by 14.3, 73.4-59.1, won 83% of simulations
On the other hand, if the Flames don't start out hot they're going to have trouble covering this line against a hot-shooting Valparaiso team. Brandon Wood and his teammates beat UIC by 6 in Chicago. The Crusaders can really fill the basket and playing at home will give them a significant advantage. My best guess is that the Crusaders end up covering this line even though UIC has been improving lately.
DePaul head coach speculation: Todd Bozeman
In his thoughts today, Ken Pomeroy asks that someone give Morgan State head coach Todd Bozeman (right) a chance. And quite honestly, there is nothing on his coaching resume on the court to discourage the notion that Bozeman is an excellent basketball coach. He won at California and he's winning at Morgan State - a school that hadn't had a winning season since 1989 before he took over - and his team is now on the verge of going undefeated during the regular season in conference.
Morgan State plays in the MEAC, but that hasn't stopped them from compiling an impressive 17-7 record and a 129 ranking in Pomeroy. That record should only continue to improve as the Golden Bears beat up on other MEAC squads. This is a team that won at Arkansas and lost by 9 at Louisville. They can play.
Bozeman also won at California. He made 3 NCAA Tournaments, produced 7 NBA quality players and finished 63-35*. But of course there is that asterik. The smudge on the record that is the reason Bozeman went from the Pac-10 to the MEAC after taking 11 seasons off. It's the reason why his hiring would be an incredibly gutsy move by DePaul athletic director Jean Lenti Ponsetto. One that would grab national headlines.
Morgan State plays in the MEAC, but that hasn't stopped them from compiling an impressive 17-7 record and a 129 ranking in Pomeroy. That record should only continue to improve as the Golden Bears beat up on other MEAC squads. This is a team that won at Arkansas and lost by 9 at Louisville. They can play.
Bozeman also won at California. He made 3 NCAA Tournaments, produced 7 NBA quality players and finished 63-35*. But of course there is that asterik. The smudge on the record that is the reason Bozeman went from the Pac-10 to the MEAC after taking 11 seasons off. It's the reason why his hiring would be an incredibly gutsy move by DePaul athletic director Jean Lenti Ponsetto. One that would grab national headlines.
Northwestern comfortably handles Indiana
Against Michigan, Northwestern gave a businesslike performance. Against Indiana on Sunday the Wildcats showed the other side of the coin as strong emotions carried Northwestern to an easy 78-61 victory.
From the opening dunk by Drew Crawford, to the final turnaround jumper by Ivan Peljusic the Wildcats played with an intensity that is underscored by the fact that every home game is a must-win in this part of the season.
Things got a little tense near the end of the first half as Indiana had the margin to single digits for a moment near the end, but Mike Capocci gave Northwestern a moral boost heading into halftime with a dunk of his own.
All five Northwestern starters finished in double-figures. John Shurna led the Wildcats with 16 points. He also had 6 assists. Senior Jeremy Nash had a double-double with 13 points and 10 boards.
From the opening dunk by Drew Crawford, to the final turnaround jumper by Ivan Peljusic the Wildcats played with an intensity that is underscored by the fact that every home game is a must-win in this part of the season.
Things got a little tense near the end of the first half as Indiana had the margin to single digits for a moment near the end, but Mike Capocci gave Northwestern a moral boost heading into halftime with a dunk of his own.
All five Northwestern starters finished in double-figures. John Shurna led the Wildcats with 16 points. He also had 6 assists. Senior Jeremy Nash had a double-double with 13 points and 10 boards.
Thoughts from the first half of Northwestern vs. Indiana
Sure, the Super Bowl is tonight, but before that Northwestern is taking on Indiana in Big Ten play. The Hoosiers are down this season, but they've still managed to Minnesota, Michigan and Pittsburgh this season. They're a dangerous team if you give them life.
If you want to see all of my thoughts you can check out this Twitter stream. But here are some general themes from the first half, which the Wildcats won 40-29.
If you want to see all of my thoughts you can check out this Twitter stream. But here are some general themes from the first half, which the Wildcats won 40-29.
Photos from Chicago State vs. UTPA
Chicago State got its second win in Great West play with a 76-69 victory over Texas-Pan American on Saturday. Here's a photo gallery with some moments from the game.
Chicago schools fighting for conference position
Loyola, UIC and Chicago State know that they aren't going to make the postseason as an at-large candidate. This makes battling for position in conference even more important. The Ramblers and Flames could get hot in Indianapolis in March and find themselves playing for a spot in the Big Dance, and if the Cougars were to make some noise in Orem, Utah during the Great West tournament they'd have an automatic bid to the CIT.
But, in order to make the most of those moments, you have to set yourself up for success. For instance, in the Horizon League the first round is on campus sites and only involves the bottom 4 teams. This is very important for the Ramblers as they currently sit in 8th place (the last home first round seed) in conference. (Actually, Loyola and UIC would play in a first round game as of right now!)
Chicago State's situation is a little different. They're fighting for position in the Great West standings, but it doesn't mean there's anything less on the line. The atmosphere on Saturday for the Cougars' homecoming game against Texas-Pan American at the Jones Convocation Center was intense. Tempers flared and Chicago State eventually escaped with a 76-69 victory.
But, in order to make the most of those moments, you have to set yourself up for success. For instance, in the Horizon League the first round is on campus sites and only involves the bottom 4 teams. This is very important for the Ramblers as they currently sit in 8th place (the last home first round seed) in conference. (Actually, Loyola and UIC would play in a first round game as of right now!)
Chicago State's situation is a little different. They're fighting for position in the Great West standings, but it doesn't mean there's anything less on the line. The atmosphere on Saturday for the Cougars' homecoming game against Texas-Pan American at the Jones Convocation Center was intense. Tempers flared and Chicago State eventually escaped with a 76-69 victory.
Q&A with The UConn Blog
Kevin Meachem of The UConn Blog was happy to answer some questions about the Huskies as DePaul prepares to play a Saturday evening game against a Jim Calhoun-less Connecticut squad.
Even though they are ranked 47th in Pomeroy, the Huskies are seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes slip away in the very tough Big East. So of course Saturday night in Stoors will be key to getting back on track.
1) CCB: The Jim Calhoun (left) drama has been the big national story about Connecticut for most of the season. How has it affected the team? Is George Blaney doing a good job or is there a game you think you would've won if Calhoun had been on the bench?
TUB: I'm almost positive UConn would have won the Marquette game (they led by three with under a minute to play at home) last week.
On the other hand, I think it's possible that Calhoun's absence (and a jacked-up Gampel Pavilion crowd) inspired UConn to beat then-#1 Texas. But whatever inspiration there was has clearly faded over the last few games.
As a head coach, George Blaney is a wonderful assistant coach. He seems like a very nice man, and UConn fans are comfortable with in short interim periods while Calhoun is away.
That being said, he's 180 degrees the opposite of a firebreather like Calhoun. We've joked on the blog that we're not sure Blaney's alive, since he waits about four or five possessions too long to stop the other team's momentum with a timeout. He's almost too nice and quiet for his - and the team's - own good.
Even though they are ranked 47th in Pomeroy, the Huskies are seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes slip away in the very tough Big East. So of course Saturday night in Stoors will be key to getting back on track.
1) CCB: The Jim Calhoun (left) drama has been the big national story about Connecticut for most of the season. How has it affected the team? Is George Blaney doing a good job or is there a game you think you would've won if Calhoun had been on the bench?
TUB: I'm almost positive UConn would have won the Marquette game (they led by three with under a minute to play at home) last week.
On the other hand, I think it's possible that Calhoun's absence (and a jacked-up Gampel Pavilion crowd) inspired UConn to beat then-#1 Texas. But whatever inspiration there was has clearly faded over the last few games.
As a head coach, George Blaney is a wonderful assistant coach. He seems like a very nice man, and UConn fans are comfortable with in short interim periods while Calhoun is away.
That being said, he's 180 degrees the opposite of a firebreather like Calhoun. We've joked on the blog that we're not sure Blaney's alive, since he waits about four or five possessions too long to stop the other team's momentum with a timeout. He's almost too nice and quiet for his - and the team's - own good.
Photos from Loyola vs. Youngstown State
The game between Loyola and Youngstown State on Thursday was full of emotion. The Ramblers pulled out a 92-85 overtime victory over the Penguins. Geoff McCammon led the way with 25 points, but everyone contributed. Here are some photos from the game.
Ramblers work extra hard to take out Penguins
Loyola head coach Jim Whitesell said that he had never seen a team shoot 73.9% in a half and be down by 8. Well, until Thursday, when the Ramblers trailed Youngstown State by that margin. But maybe the Ramblers needed something odd to happen in order to break their 4-game losing streak. They finally broke through with a 92-85 overtime victory over the Penguins.
Courtney Stanley scored 18 points and dished out 9 assists and Geoff McCammon added 25 points in 45 minutes of action as Loyola managed to escape and improve its record to 4-8 in Horizon League play.
"We realized our season was on the line," Stanley said. "At this point we've got to win. ... It's do or die right now."
Courtney Stanley scored 18 points and dished out 9 assists and Geoff McCammon added 25 points in 45 minutes of action as Loyola managed to escape and improve its record to 4-8 in Horizon League play.
"We realized our season was on the line," Stanley said. "At this point we've got to win. ... It's do or die right now."

