Black Jack

White Sox salary dump 101

So, after being swept in New York and showing little signs of life for a title drive, White Sox GM Kenny Williams went on an early salary dump trading Jim Thome and Jose Contreras for two mid level prospects at the last minute prior to teams solidifying their post season rosters.

I can't remember who, but somebody...OH YEAH, ME, suggested that Contreras should be traded way back when he had won three straight and his value had peaked. But there were a lot of naysayers.

Now, we have to "send cash" along with Contreras to get someone to take him off the White Sox hands.

And everyone knew the Sox would eventually have to dump the salary of either Jermaine Dye, or Jim Thome. Folks also argued with me that we shouldn't "throw in the towel" too soon.

But, in reality, the Sox had no chance of winning the division unless Carlos Quentin was able to return to his 2008 form. That predicted an overload in the outfield where Dye or Thome could have been expendable and the Sox could have received a package of prospects rather than having, once again, to send Thome "with cash" to the Dodgers.

Oh yeah and how many games has Peavy won for the Sox so far?

What the hell, I graduated from Stanford just like Kenny Williams. How come Jerry Reinsdorf doesn't call me for my opinion?

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51 Comments

J said:

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Yah, what he said. Gotta love Garland going to the Dodgers also. And Jerry would ask you for your opinion, only after he took you to arbitration. Dumb and Dumber part deux starring Kenny and Jerry.
J-bird out!

Brian said:

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So with Jimmy being in the last month of his deal and only having two more paychecks coming his way, how is it a salary dump, especially helping LA pay for those last two checks?

Jack McDowell said:

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Exactly, it's salary dump for next year making it look like they got something in return after making the mistake of letting the real trade deadline pass.

mantom said:

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salary dump? There's one month left in the season and Kenny had to supply cash to get rid of the playes. both players were going to be free agents. Sox save $2 million at the very most. Naw, this is Kenny Williams acting on his emotions instead of his head. If he had used his head these players would've been gone in 2007.

MD Kevin said:

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Jack,

Your reasoning has me at a loss. These two guys are going to be free agents. They had no options for 2010. Not sure they would qualify for a Type A or B free agent as the Sox would have to offer arbitration to get compensation.

So explain to me how a "mistake" of missing the real trade deadline qualifies as a salary dump. Sounds as though you are suggesting that Thome and Contreras should have been traded prior to August 1?

One can be disappointed that the Sox traded these two guys, esp. Thome, but that does not make it a salary dump.

dondel said:

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Leave a comment...

webegeek said:

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oh, well, for those of us that have been sox fans since the 60's, we've seen much bigger disappointments like 67, 72, 83, 93, the 94 strike.

Cheer up gang, next year we've a great starting four and we AREN'T CUB fans. The Sox were not good enough, the Cubbies just plain imploded.

Dennis Byrne said:

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You are correct, Karnak. Anyone could see (despite those three wins) that Contreras was a headcase. After walking just one guy, he couldn't get the ball over the plate for the rest of the game.Or, it turns out, for the rest of the season.

dondel said:

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It's more than just Contreras. It's the constant attempted ressurections of him, Colon and "big game" Garcia. When your 'finished' your finished and K. Williams has unwillingly?
assisted in throwing away 10 - 12 wins by other starters (even if
some were from the minors) Sox are a fundamentally, SERIOUSLY flawed team!!!

dlbass said:

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Might the Thome move be more about allowing him the oppo

dlbass said:

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Might the Thome move be more about allowing a 39 y/o HOF worthy player a chance to win a World Series ring? A reward for Thome for his nearly 4 years with the Sox? A thank-you for the homerun that sent the Sox into the playoffs last year? Seeing what the Sox got in return, its doubtful that the move was made in order to secure a 26 year old class A player.

Jack McDowell said:

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UMMMMM, is this the same White Sox we are talking about? When have they ever done anything remotely close to that?

MRANXIETY said:

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I used to have respect for you Black Jack. This "I told you so" doesn't look good on you. How many GM jobs have you had again??

Jack McDowell said:

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You lost respect for me because I pointed out that I had made suggestions in my past blogs that were #1 commented on, debated, abused and disbelieved...only to turn out correct? I have had NO GM jobs, but for godsake, it's not brainsurgery. You make it like a GM is this highly trained person who I or any other semi-knowledgeable person can't hold a candle to. I'm sure from your bitter comment toward me you'll be the first to post a comment when I predict things incorrectly.

MRANXIETY said:

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Don't hold your breath.

dlbass said:

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The justification that Kenny Williams gave a couple days ago was pretty much the same rationale that I mentioned.....

goomba said:

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I couldn't agree more. The only way the deal made sense is as a favor to Thome to get him a chance for a World Series ring. Usually you dump a player about to be a free agent to reduce payroll (which they didn't since they sent LA cash) and hopefully gain a reasonable prospect (a 26-year-old Class A minor leaguer hitting .254--Puleeze!!) instead of nothing. For what they got (essentially nothing), they should have held on to him, even if they had no intention to re-sign him for 2010. If I was a Sox season ticket holder, I would feel cheated out of the last chances to see this great hitter before he leaves town.

part-time pariah said:

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call me a homer (which i am FAR from) but i refuse to piss and moan until we are mathematically out. so yea.

J said:

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Homer.

Rick S said:

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Gotta agree with Mr. Anxiety here Jack, this "I told you so" business seems to lack a bit of maturity, and from a Stanford man no less. As fans, we try to remain optimistic about our team's prospects, even if this season looked like a transition year from the start. The Peavy deal obviously looks bad in hindsight, but if he returns to previous form, losing Richard for the stretch drive of '09 will be a fair trade-off. The season would have (at best) ended in the Divisional Playoffs. More likely Ramirez or Nix or Pods or one of these other assclowns would have made enough errors to keep us out of the playoffs entirely. Our pitching faltered but having the worst defense in baseball is what really killed us -- if Gold Glover Ozzie doesn't care, why should we?

Jack, you were down on the Peavy deal from the get. You made some salient points about the poor timing of the deal, but we don't really know if Peavy would have been available and gettable in the off-season. Admittedly, many folks were overly optimistic on when Peavy would return -- but that's, again, a function, of them being hopeful fans.

The Sox have a lot of talented young guys on the squad. But unless they move Ramirez to the outfield or trade him, the infield is going to suck again. Sox need a free-agent like Beltre to hold down third with Beckham moving to short. We also need a real CF from somewhere -- even someone like Coco Crisp would suffice -- as we can expect Rios to take over right from the soon-to-be-gone Dye.

Also, I hope KW is cured of his retread fetish and I don't want to see Garcia, Colon or any other has-been within miles of the team next year. Sox need to go out and get another starter to go with what appears to be a promising rotation. I hope to Christ Peavy can pitch like a number 1, which is why KW gambled to get him. Re-tooling the bullpen will be tough but starting out by flushing Dotel, Linestink and Pena is a start.

The moves are there to be made for Kenny. Last year, he was handcuffed by some bloated contracts and unresolved questions about the rookies. Now we know Getz and Beckham can play and Fields and Anderson can not. Two big contracts are gone already with two more, inevitably, to go.

Jack McDowell said:

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Well, let's put it this way...I post about the White Sox and what my thoughts and opinions are. The public then sets out to challenge my predictions, comment themselves and generally try to out-comment me. I feel I at least have a right to revisit my original posts and point out where I was correct. Whenever anyone thinks I'm wrong they are free to comment as many times as they'd like to tall me why...and they do! I have no idea why this would be childish, deserving of "lack of respect" comments etc. When I'm wrong I'll admit it. Haven't seen any of you out there admit to yours???!!!

MRANXIETY said:

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OK Jack, I'm wrong about something everyday. It doesn't bother me one bit to admit that. My main "beef" with sports writers who happen to be ex- players is that they are always the first to come out and complain about how the GM should have done it this way or that way, and if they were in control, "none of this would have happened" or "I told you so".
I've been a fan long enough to see KW get attacked by the press every time he makes a risky move. Kenny has huge balls (strictly hetero). The 2005 World Series proves that. He put together one hell of a team that year. When Kenny traded Carlos Lee in the winter of 04-05, I didn't agree with it. Their was plenty of other trades I didn't agree with during Kenny's tenure. But I didn't jump on line and start tearing him down. As far as I'm concerned, after '05, Kenny is Teflon. I think he deserves more breaks than other GM's. KW helped build something that might not ever happen again in my lifetime. If I go 3 out of 10 in baseball, I would be very successful. If a GM goes 3 for 10, he would be fired.
I'll take KW any day over likes of Bowden, Towers, and countless others. If being a GM is such an easy job, then how could some of them be so horrible at it. KW has a feel and flare for the dramatic that can't be matched.
Everybody is sweating about Peavy, worrying about the Sox giving up four arms for an injured pitcher, almost as if he's in his walk year. Hello, we have him for 2-3 more years. We needed a #1 starter, and we got him. People are saying that we would have won a few more games if we would have kept Clayton. How do you know that? He was terribly inconsistent with the Sox. Clayton has been just as inconsistent in a pitcher friendly park and league. I like the gamble they took on Rios. Pods can't play center. Neither can JD, or Q, and I don't trust D Wise as an everyday player. Who else would they bring in to do it, Corey Patterson? I have faith that the Sox can fix Rios. This guy has 5 legitimate tools.
OK, I got side tracked, but I needed to vent. The point is Kenny deserves a mile when other GM's get inches.
Maybe I went a little overboard when I said I lost my respect for you. I should have said that I was disappointed in you. That was my first day surfing on Chicago Now, and I was surprised by your comments. Especially from someone who came up with the Sox. Nothing personal Jack, but I'll defend Kenny no matter what.

Jack McDowell said:

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Well, this is a blog and not necessarily a column so I'm not sure that makes me a sportswriter exactly. Plus all of this was based on a couple of past blogs where we all were challenged to play "make believe" GM. So it was kind of a fun contest in a way. I think I give Ozzie and KW far more slack than anyone out there. I have questioned a couple of moves...that's part of this blogging thing, opening up conversations and opinions. And the reason that more GM's are terrible at it is because there are far more non-players in the mix right now. Pencil pushers and stats guys cannot build a successful team unless they can grasp the knowledge of the players on other players. Finding and developing winning baseball players is not some major talent, but it does take an understanding of a winning mentality and what that takes and looks like in a player. And defending Kenny no matter what sounds scary!

Rick S said:

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My comment is based on this. I assume that since you're the only person posting who's had a career in MLB, that your insights are going to be most valuable. That's why I read the blog. But having you go over and over these predictions and then declare victory about this point and that point feels strained. Here you speculate that Contreras should have been traded right at the point when he had his three good starts, which would have been a truly miraculous bit of fortune telling for any GM to pull the trigger in that moment and in that circumstance. And yet the logic that supports this seems at odds with some of your comments about the Richard-Peavy trade-- in that it left the rotation an arm short at the time. In hindsight, we all would have rather had Richard's arm than Contreras', but who knew that with any certainty? Finally, in reading your ongoing comments about the Peavy deal and your excitement about Jake's predicted date of return, it started to seem as if you wished the Peavy deal would go south, simply because you disagreed with it. Bottom line is I want to Sox to win, just like I wanted them to win when you played for them. So I guess I'm trying to be a tad hopeful about KW's deals. That doesn't mean I'm pollyanna about it, but I'd like to see what Peavy does over the next three or four seasons before making up my mind.

I think we all knew the Sox didn't have the horses this year and the only reason they were "in the hunt" as long as they were was because of their weak division. KW seemed to react on the fly to this, when their original plan was to save money and treat this as a transition year. At least that's how it seemed. I mean, the Sox tried to foist Colon on us as the 5th starter.

Anyhow, at the end of the day it's basball not world hunger, It's all in fun and lots of what we're talking about is lost in translation or confused by semantics. Please know that I appreciate your insights and respect your point of view, though I may not offer a blanket agreement with every utterance.

Jack McDowell said:

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These are merely games and contests we are running in this ongoing blog. A bunch of us made predictions about Peavy's return etc. and we played "make believe GM" etc. So B.S.ing about who was right and wrong is all part of the fun of it, don't you think? There was a lot of back and forth about each other's predictions way back when and a lot of jabs thrown about them. All this is just a continuation of that spirit. I wouldn't take it all too seriously. And I am certainly NOT hoping Jake fails, I just am showing that despite the many doubters of my speculated return date, it kinda all played out that way. Simple as that.

sandiegosoxfan said:

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where to start... im glad they sent thome to a place where he has a shot at a ring. next year fields 3rd beckham short alexi 2nd paulie 1st outfields quinton pods rios aj catching dye dh rotation burhle peavy danks floyd pick the 5th we get faster and i hope the defense is better alexi scares me at short. he seemed to be more stable at 2nd... there are other options for 3nd if beckham goes to short...

Amra said:

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Jack, was this meant as a salary dump or did KW do this to light a fire under the player's asses???

When you look at it, this wasn't much of a salary dump since both contracts were ending and KW had to send cash with the players. So, I doubt saving a few $$ in 2009 was the prime reason this move was made.

KW took two very popular players who were under performing and sent them packing for next to nothing. Why would he do that?

Kenny played baseball, but he was also a football player. I cannot comment about baseball coaches, but when my college coaches wanted us to perform better, they did everything they could to put the fear of God in us. We ended up following up an embarrassing loss in which the team looked lifeless (like the current White Sox team) and through their motivation utterly demolishing our main rivals on the way to a championship.

Taking players out of their comfort zone will either motivate them to perform better or set up the off-season moves which we all knew were coming (Dye and/or Kenerko at DH)and Rios in Center/Right Field.

And while the White Sox might not have a reputation of treating all their former ballplayers well going out the door, they do a pretty good job of bringing them back and taking care of them when their playing careers are done (Ozzie, Kenny, Greg Walker, Tim Rains, Harold Baines, Joey Cora, Art Kusnyer, Minie Minoso, Billy Pierce, Darin Jackson, Tom Paciorek, Ed Farmer, Steve Stone, etc. In 2005, 6 out of the 7 members of the coaching staff played for the White Sox--Don Cooper was the only exception and he has been in the Sox organization since 1988.

Go Sox!!

whitesoxrock1977 said:

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You got to feel that the Sox would have 3 or 4 more wins today (and still be contending for the Division) had they not brought Contreras back at all this season and went with Clayton Richard all year. I just didn't understand that move in the first place.
It's total speculation, but I think Richard could have won 8 or 9 games to this point.

disop83 said:

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to sandiegosoxfan ... I think your next year predictions for the White Sox and their positions make the most logical sense but as we all know logical thought escapes upper management at times on this team.

J said:

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I like how some of you douchebags come down on Jack for saying "I told you so" when he was in fact right about everything thus far. Where's the lack of maturity? It's a blog you a-holes. He played 13 years, was a multi all-star and won a World Series ring. He has friends and colleagues in the game whom he still talks with.

Just because somebody has the title of GM doesn't make them smart or good business men. You all so badly want to school him because of his history in the pros, but you can't. You have no insight at all. You're taking bullet points or comments made by the sportswriters and trying to pass them off as your own and it's just weak.

You're couch potatoes. You've never played in the show. You know nothing of the inner workings of the front office and the politics involved. You want to leave your thoughts or opinions on something great, but don't scold Jack like your his parent. That's just sad and pathetic.

Amra said:

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How long was your pro career??

J said:

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I never once eluded to playing pro ball, but I am however friends with a handful of MLB players, Jack being one as well as two agents. And having spoken with them, having met Jerry Reinsdorf and talking with him, I'd say I'm closer to the game then you.

webegeek said:

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wow, that's great. I use to bartend at Jeremiah Sweeney's in Orland Park in the early 80's and Koosman and Luzinski use to come in there with their wives and have drinks. I never realized that made me an expert on baseball! I got a buddy who got drunk as a skunk one afternoon at a beach bar with Marvin Haggler in Jamaica, so that makes him an expert in boxing too.
Haggler told him that damn Sugar Ray fight was fixed so he'd do a rematch and but he said screw them, he made enough, he wasn't going to give them the satisfaction of screwing him again.
Inside info.
Gosh dang, this brushing elbows with jocks is great!

LeadDog said:

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jbird...can I have your autograph? You're basically the same as "Turtle"...you're a gopher. Hey, you better run...I think I hear BJ calling for you.

Rick S said:

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I'm not trying to school Jack about anything. Like you said, it's a blog and if you look at Jack's comments, he's always puffing about his predictions, making sure everyone knows what he thought and how right he was. Anyone who's been on this blog knows that. I figure it's his blog and he'll say what he pleases. But so will I.

I didn't have Jack's pro career and wouldn't know what that's like, but I did play ball at a Division I school for a while and I play single-digit golf today, so I know something about athletic skill. Course, I don't know any agents, so you got me there.

Still, what's more pathetic than being some hanger-on jock-licker, currying favor with Boss Jack?

J said:

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Golly gee that's funny. So, because I'm a friend, I'm a jock licker. I suppose it wouldn't have anything to do with him being a kind and thoughtful person. I curry no favor with anyone. I know the person not the athlete. And if you correctly read what I wrote initially, I was blasting only the personal comments not the opinions. The problem is, you don't know the difference of the two. At no point did I mention athletic skill, I mentioned him having knowledge of the political workings of the sport by being within it for so long.

Rick S said:

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You're the only poster I've seen on this blog hurling insults, calling people names and making personal attacks. Characterizing people as "couch potatoes" or a bunch of "a-holes" is not "blasting the personal comments" it's just a plain, old-fashioned insult. Anyways, why not leave the blasting to Jack, who seems quite able to defend his POV?

One last -- The points you keep hammering about Jack's resume are absurd. Would all these people be posting to Jack McDowell if he was a bartender in North Boston?

koachditker said:

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Why are so many ex-Chicago pro athletes so bitter about their former teams?

I like how J-bird rails against posters who've never played in the 'show' all the while never having played in the 'show' himself.

I loved Black Jack on the Sox but he never met an argument he didn't want to stick his beak into.

Mr. McDowell, I respect the heck out of your opinions on all things pitching but when it comes to front office comments, me thinks you're a little jaded.

J said:

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What exactly did I say that offended you? You're right I never made it, I tried and failed. I never eluded to having been there. And it's not about me railing against these postings, it's about some on here going after Jack personally and me calling them out. All I stated were the facts. Jack played, he has insight none of us has, respect that. He's dealt with upper management, arbitration and all the bullshit in between. I'd take his word over anyone on here, that's my point.

JimH said:

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The Sox are paying for most if not all the salary and neither one is under contract for next year so it wasn't a salary dump. It was a way to expand the 40 man roster for the September call ups and I do believe that KW did Jimmy a favor by trading him to the Dodgers to see if he can be part of a WS Champion. He had a no trade clause and told the Dodgers he can't play 1B unless it's an emergency. Basically he's a pinch hitter for the next month and a DH if the Dodgers get to the World Series. Wouldn't be surprised if he returns next year at a greatly reduced price.

I do somewhat agree with the take on Contreras, but that would have still left the Sox without enough starters as Colon was sketchy and it would have probably precluded them for tradng for an injured Peavy which is a move I like for the future.

I pegged this team for 80-85 wins so waving the White Flag doesn't bother me. What bothers me is the crappy defense, horrible baserunning and bad bullpen pitching. That needs to be fixed. Pods needs to go and there's no way Dye's option gets picked up. Rios plays CF for the entire season and he should return to his usual self. Bullpen and a leadoff hitter need to be addressed. Chone Figgins? Bobby Abreu?

I also am furious with Ozzie for refusing to give Beckhman time off. I know he was waiting for the call ups, but in refusing to give him a break he really perpetuated his slump. Why is Lillibridge on the roster if he won't play him? I have no doubt Beckham will be a future All-Star, but Ozzie's handling of that situation leaves me scratching my head. Does he even watch the "at-bats"

Mario Scalise said:

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It wasn't a salary dump since, as you pointed out, the Sox gave cash, and plus, the Sox actually acquired a legit prospect for a guy that has been removed from the rotation 3-4 times this year and had an 5.50 ERA.

I disagree with you that a leadoff hitter needs to be addressed. Not that I'm confident Podsednik will duplicate '09 in '10, but he's certaintly earned a long look since he's had the most consistent bat on this team and has arguably been their most productive producer late in games.

I agree about Beckham not getting time off, but Beckham sitting means Lillibridge plays. Beckham at his worse is better than Lillibridge. Getz needs to come back so Nix can give Beckham a breather at third.

Rick S said:

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I can't disagree that Pods gave the team an offensive jump-start and knocked in as many game-winning hits as anybody. But Pods gave away a few games with his terrible fielding. The game where he was picked off of 3rd (yes THIRD!)with one out and the team desperate for some execution told me that this guy lacks either the skill, the sense or both. That said, I think Pods is ideal as a 4th outfielder and when he's hot you play him. Keep him at less than 250 ABs a year and leave the fielding to those that are qualified. Used in spurts, Pods is effective. Doubt that Pods sees it that way but we'll soon find out what he thinks cause KW's nuts if he promises Pods a job as a starter.

Mario Scalise said:

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Sorry, but Contreras' value probably wasn't much higher two months ago, especially when you take into account the amount of salary a team would have had to take on. Plus, the White Sox landed a prospect yesterday that I would have been happy to land for Contreras two months ago. Hynick isn't in-line with the over-used "box of baseball" joke ... he can actually turn into a quality guy at the back of the rotation, which is more than what Contreras is both now and over the next five years.

TrueSox said:

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Trading a center fielder like Aaron Rowand for a DH never made any sense to begin with. ... The real underachieving, however, is occurring inside the general manager's brain. If only ChiSox fans had a vote. Out with Williams, out with the emotional manager and bring back Tony La Russa (contract with Cards expires at end of season).

Chicago Expatriate said:

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Just a few random thoughts. Jack may at times have a preachy "I told you so" tone to his blogs, yet I still enjoy reading what he has to say. Like most of the crowd, I appladed KW for getting Rios and Peavy. Now I have a bit of buyer's regret. I fail to see the supposed stellar qualities of Rios in the field. His bat has been Dewayne Wise bad. Next year hopefully will be much better, but as of now he leaves me with a bad feeling. I wonder if Peavy's injury problems are some kind of omen. Why are the Sox so bad fundamentally year in and year out? Errors galore, failures to bunt, sacrifice, hit the cutoff man. At bat after at bat where Sox hitters try to hit a tape measure home run, when a grounder through the infield will do. Some teams know how to do the little things well and hold their players accountable. Why not the Sox?

Rick S said:

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You're dead-on about how Rios has looked so far. At first, he didn't seem to either want or know how to take charge in center, bumping into Dye in right and Quentin in left -- just a couple more in the seemingly hundreds of mental errors that were NOT called on this defensively inept team. At the plate, Rios has a total of ONE WALK in 55 ABs -- great plate discipline, huh! Like you, I want to see the guy who made the All-Star team twice. He hasn't appeared so far.

I think Jack is onto something when he talks about how the Twins teach fundamentals in the Minors and inculcate their players with this style. Sox seem to think they need a bunch of bashers to hit balls out of their hitters park, but those offenses tend to go into stalls and simply can not adapt to games where they have to manufacture runs. I can tell you this, it's been hell to watch the team this year. Fumbling in the field and killing rallies with the worse execution I can remember seeing.

sthsideaussie said:

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Let's get back to the original point, a salary dump and should have sold Contreras when he was on song. Clearly not a dump as it ain't saving much. Might be a shake up attempt though a bit late. Done now anyway. Getting back to Jose, you have to see this as a calculated risk/gamble. Some of KW's gambles have paid off big time and in fact have been some of his best moves. Where would we be in 08 without Q, Ramierez, Danks and Floyd. No where. AJ was a gamble. Remember that Contreras has come back early from a bad injury and when on song has a big upside. Was he worth sticking with after the working out the kinks in AAA. Yes. Did they stick with him too long, probably. Would anyone else have touched his contract back then, don't know. Hope he finds form in the mountains by all accounts he works hard and

donsox merk said:

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jerry does not contact u jack because you are a former pitcher, a musican and don't know anything near what you spew...no knock on a body far removed on the West coast and without the benefit of scouts and daily reports from many knowledable baseball people in the White Sox organization. Very similar to these scribes sitting in their Ivory Towetrs with all the speculative answers (crap) they put out. We all can give an opinon without knowing all the reasons for performances and/ or transcations. Kenny isn't perfect anymore than any of are. But he has done great things for the Sox that hadn't happened for years, As you did great things pitching that was your forte, But as a Stanford grad you are smart enough to know it would take some years of baseball executive experience to do true evaluation of what is done, needs to be done and know that even then as all individuals not being perfect all decisions don't alway work the way planned. But with the right experience more work than not.

Jack McDowell said:

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Don't agree. I know everything that I spew! I'm not in any ivory tower, but I KNOW players and the makeup of a player has everything to do with winning. I have NEVER said anything negative about Kenny Williams and his job as a GM. Questioning moves and wondering about moves is far from being clueless. We have just speculated about things, pretend played GM etc. No shit that we'd have scouting reports etc. and have FAR more info in front of us if we were truly GM's! But the funny thing is, even without all that fluff and B.S., I have still been correct about my "pretend speculations." Again, it's not rocket science.

webegeek said:

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Jack, I love your blog and hearing your opinions and yes, you were right about Peavy but admit that you got lucky on that one. Had he not had a line drive off his pitching arm in his last start in the minors, he'd of already had his first start for the Sox in NY or MN. That was a bad stroke of luck, not expert knowledge.

Jack McDowell said:

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Absolutely wrong. Had he made every single rehab assignment perfectly and come back very quickly, THAT would have been dumb luck. That's the whole point I was stressing! The line drive was the "thing" that happened. But they always happen. Getting hit around so you don't build your pitch count, getting weather that delays a start etc. I was close to correct because of my expert knowledge on the reality of rehab assignments. And just remember, there is a fine line between dumb luck and expertise!

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