Black Jack

The McDowell Formula and the Sox' Chances

One of my first ChicagoNow blogs discussed the "McDowell formula" for a successful season and a potential World series run while explaining why Sox fans shouldn't worry about the Royals!

As we approach the season's half way point, the pieces to this Championship formula seems to be almost falling into place for the Sox.

With two first half starts remaining, Mark Buerhle is on a 20 win pace and his ERA remains solidly around 3.00.  He's on a pace for 220 or so innings. So, 18-20 wins, 3.00 ERA and 220 innings.  Cy Young potential. And being at least a top CY finisher will add MVP votes as well.

And if Bobby Jenks rolls out 45-50 saves, which is in reach, and chips away at his ERA, he could also sneak in a couple of votes.
 

Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko's batting averages hover around .300 and both are on pace to hit between 30-40 homeruns with 100 plus RBI.  That is without either of them going on any type of a tear which could boost those numbers. Those types of numbers will garner MVP votes. They won't necessarily take home the prize, but they will get in the mix somewhere.

Gordon Beckham's slow start has been erased by a developing comfort level.  He has pretty solid numbers for hitting in the 8 or 9 hole all year. A big second half could set him up for a possible rookie of the year bid.  

This seems the biggest push of all because of Elvis Andrus' solid season to date and Ricky Romero having a great season in Toronto.  BUT...if a playoff  run is in the cards, Beckham will have to have that big second half for the Sox to be there!

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18 Comments

Jimmymac120912 said:

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Jack,
Lets slow down on "The Bear" Mark Buehrle's Cy Young bid!!! Have you not been watching this guy pitch after the all star break. His #'s have been medicore at best since 2006 after the all star break. The guy has a lot of miles on that left arm. Its time for Danks and Floyd to carry this team in the 2nd half of the season, if they have any shot at a division title. They have the young arms and a full season and half under the belts.

Jack McDowell said:

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The reality is in the numbers. IF the Sox are to win, they need a Cy Young contender. Mark's first half numbers dictate that is a possibility.No other Sox starter can claim that unless they run the table in the second half. He's been mediocre in the second half since... oh yeah the last time they won! I'm just sayin'...

Jimmymac120912 said:

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First, I have to agree with cubbiejulie on the fact that their needs to be an edit button, for grammar and spelling after the fact of posting your comment. I found quite a few in my last comment.
However, that being said has anyone seen the White Sox schedule coming up after the all star break?
From July 20th to August 7th They have THE RAYS, TIGERS,TWINS, YANKEES, AND ANGELS.

Then from August 24th to September 7th. They play the Red Sox, Yankees, Red Sox. With two games vs the TWINS, AND VS THE CUBS.

Therefore, my conclusion is if Williams can not get Roberts or Haren, he should be a seller. Because the days of playing the Royals and Indians in back to back series are over!!!!!!

Jack McDowell said:

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Your comments on the editing thing are heard! We are actually still "building" the site and the tech folks are tweaking as we go. And, obviously we have to play against good teams in the second half. But I have seen teams make runs who have only beaten the teams they should beat and played weakly against the top teams as well. And if you're gonna open up the system for Haren, then open it up more and get Halladay!

Jimmymac120912 said:

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Jack,
I understand what you are saying about Buehrle. However, I am just saying that Floyd and Danks have to pitch Cy Young ball in the 2nd half for this team to contend, because of the schedule they have coming up. Its just time for someone new to step into the spotlight and be an elite starter. I had just heard how the GM of the Blue Jays is fielding offers on Halladay. I would throw the farm at him, except for Gordon Beckham. I know you would not include Beckhman, however, I just drove home from a long commute and I heard some white sox fans or fools say they should throw Beckham in the deal. Not a chance in hell!!! The question is would the Sox pay that 20 million dollars next year, then lose him in free agency? I just dont see that happening.

Jack McDowell said:

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I don't know...Another Buerhle win, Konerko 3 jacks and 7 RBI's, Beckham another RBI from the 8 hole!!! They must have read my post!

JulieDiCaro said:

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hey jack.

i know how much you LOVE ryan dempster's delivery. have you seen mike gonzalez's? it's nuts.

Jack McDowell said:

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I haven't been able to see it yet because I'm bent over laughing about Dempster tripping over the railing to the dL!

JulieDiCaro said:

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All right, so much for my attempt to engage you in civil conversation.

Good day, sir!

Jack McDowell said:

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Hey you should check the McDowell Formula and see if the Cubs have a chance this year. It's pretty straight forward and time tested! And I will seek out the funky mechanics of your Cubbie hurler.

JulieDiCaro said:

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he's not our hurler--he's with Atlanta. he does this freaky thing where he rocks back and forth for like, half and hour, before he winds up. it's crazy.

very well, jack. i will TAKE your little formula and i will APPLY it to my team. look for the diary at LOHO tomorrow.

(sticks tongue out at jack and flounces off)

Brian said:

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I have to agree with JimmyMac that the Sox schedule in the second half is brutal. They end August with a road trip that has them playing 4 at Boston, 3 at NY, 3 at Minnesota, then they play at the Cubs and are home for a 3 game series with Boston. That is a brutal trip.

We can't give away outs like we have been on that type of a trip and get away with it like we have been against the Tribe and Royals. Uribe, I mean, Lexi has to get better defensively if the Sox are going to have a chance. Floyd and Danks need to step it up in the second half, also. We can't bank on Contreras continuing this throughout the second half. If he does, great. Does Richard stay as the #5 pitcher or do you bring in Poreda to start?

Who wouldn't want Doc Halladay? But do you include Beckham in a deal, along with a few other stud minor leaguers to get him? That I don't know about. It's been so long since the Sox have had an everyday player come up and excel, you hate to consider getting rid of this kid. It looks like he could be a very good player for quite a while.

Jack McDowell said:

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I don't trade Beckham. He is a #3 or #5 hitter who will be a star. The more I watch him, the more I'm sure of that. His bat path stays in the zone a long time which allows him to hit to all fields without much adjustment. He's gonna be real good.

Noneck said:

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I agree with you that Beckham looks like he will be something special but in order to get the best pitcher in baseball you have to give up something special. Grouping together a bunch of of the so called cant miss prospects wont get you Halladay. You saw what one of their hyped prospects, Allen, got in return? Beckham I believe has to be the main man in order to have a chance at Halladay. But all this now seems to be a moot point since the Sox suddenly realize they are short on dough. (But werent when they took a run at Peavy)

Soxman said:

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Blackjack,

I agree with many of the points in your post in addition to your reader’s position that our second half schedule is a brutal one. However, this team has stayed in contention this long with an offense that has basically sputtered, and with several question marks in CF, 2B, and until the last month 3B and SS. We now have the second best team ERA in he AL (3.99), and are 4th in HR (101). We can’t completely rely on Buehrle to flirt with Cy Young status. Dank, Floyd, and Contreras must remain consistent as well.

If Carlos Quentin returns healthy, our offense will be fine.

I think your point is that you cannot get overly disappointed in splitting a “should win” series because of the opponent looming. Not to sound cliché, but you have to approach each day one out at a time, one win at a time. Otherwise you tend to press as a team too much and make sloppy mistakes.

High Fives and Thumbs Up!

Soxman

webegeek said:

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why does everyone assume it has to be Beckham that is involved in the trade, why not package Rameriz with Richards and Poreda?

By the way, did anyone catch Carrasco the other night? I don't think I've seen a player wearing stirrup socks in over 20 years.

Jack McDowell said:

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Aw come on, I wore stirrups every start! And how about all those crazy stripes the Cardinals and red Sox players have! You haven't been paying close enough attention!

AzureJazzMan said:

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I honestly don't think you have to give up Beckham. You could package Flowers, Poreda, Fields, Richard, and Ramirez and that should get you Doc (that is, if he wants to pitch in the band box that is "the cell").

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