Black Jack

Peavy to the White Sox...HUH?

  It's being reported that Jake Peavy has finally agreed to rescind his no trade clause and agree to a trade to the White Sox.  I am scratching my head. Not at the fact that Peavy would agree to come.  But why would the Sox make this move right now?
   You see, I live in San Diego and the last I heard Jake Peavy was basically being shut down for the season.  He is currently on the DL with a strained tendon in his ankle.  Now it appears he will be POSSIBLY ready to pitch at the end of August????? 

 So he'll possibly make 6 starts for the White Sox this season.  Hardly a number where he can make a legitimate impact.  The whole thing with these trades is to get a guy who can have 10-14 starts this year to actually make a legitimate impact in the race!

   I don't understand why the White Sox would trade away two quality lefthanders and two other prospects at this time for this guy.  Add to this the fact that Peavy recently had a strained ligament in his throwing elbow.  I'm not guaranteeing a breakdown, but I've noticed over the years that strains seem to quickly lead to Tommy John surgery even after the initial healing of the strain.

   I love Peavy, great arm, great pitcher, great guy.  But he's NOT an American League #1 pitcher.  WOW.

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48 Comments

Zoso said:

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Wasn't your blog the other day called "No Prospect is Untouchable" or something to that effect?

This is a great trade for the next 3+ years. They have a World Series caliber 1-4 and they're not TERRIBLE elsewhere. Kenny really vindicated himself after a month of really bizarre moves. We didn't give up nothing spectacular either.

Jack McDowell said:

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What were Kenny's bizarre moves over the past few months? And I'm not worried about the prospects going, but you have to get it right! I guess time will tell. My whole point is, why now? This trade could have happened in the offseason and who knows what would have changed by then.

Alligator Derski said:

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I've learned to sit back and wait when Kenny makes a move instead of immediately getting all huffy. I understand the concerns about giving up some prospects, but Kenny is weighing the pros and cons more than anyone else. We aren't in position to win the world series this year, so beefing up the rotation for the future sounds great to me. I do see both sides of it though, because while we are getting a great pitcher for the future, it gives us no help during the short term and our season is at a crucial point right now. I'm also not going to speculate about the long term health of J.P. because it's a crapshoot with everyone, there are no guarantees. The Hawks just signed Marian Hossa to a 12 year deal and his first action as a Blackhawk is to have surgery-I'll wait and see how these moves pan out. I have to admit that I'm very excited...plus, the Cubs can suck it!

Jack McDowell said:

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The only thing I wonder about is the timing of the deal. I guarantee there was nobody else in the "Peavy hunt." This deal could have been made in the offseason as easily as it was here and you'd have a better idea of the guys you're trading, and of Peavy's health. You're trading a young starter with a 95 MPH fastball. That better pan out! While everyone's health is a crapshoot, there are some red flags that you have to take seriously. I guess we'll only know in a couple of years.

alexchilton said:

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On May 21, you wrote in regards to Kenny William's initial attempt at trading for Jake Peavy, "I can't truly believe either side felt that this deal was going to actually happen. Is White Sox GM Kenny Williams just making a hapless attempt at improving the team while knowing all along it was fiction? That's my theory, and I'm sticking with it."

Why haven't you made an acknowledgement you were wrong?

Jack McDowell said:

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As far as acknowledging the fact that I was wrong, I wasn't. I actually had inside information that Peavy was not going to rescind his no-trade clause to ANYONE when that deal was proposed. So when I made the comments, I was correct. The way these "deals" with no-trade clauses work is that a team will initially see if a player would be willing to give up their no-trade clause prior to showing your hand on what players are going where etc. At the time that the entire package of players and the initial trade was reported, anyone who knew the situation knew that the deal was not going to happen so the fact that it was leaked to the press, in my opinion, led me to say it was a PR move at the time. Had the deal been made back then, I would have acknowledged immediately I was wrong. Now I just don't understand why it was done. This seemingly doesn't help the team this year

alexchilton said:

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While there is a chance Peavy will not again this year, do you think the Sox had a chance to nab him at the Winter Meetings when more eyes would be focused on him then? Roy Halladay will most likely be the big fish that several GMs cast their nets out for, but Peavy would have figured to be the next one in line. Maybe the Sox don't get him then.

At worst, this move strengthens the team for next year -- like the Freddy Garcia trade of 2004 did for the team in 2005.

Jack McDowell said:

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The trading deadline always sees deals that are swayed one way because of the immediate need of the club that is buying. The winter meetings are laid back and there's no timetable or immediate need to get a deal done. If Peavy was going to waive his no trade clause to come here, then he would have during the winter as well and basically would have been able to dictate where he went. And, if he was going to be shut down for the remainder of the season as the Padres had said, what value would he have been during the winter? He would have been a big question mark with a big contract.

Dar-Ephotos said:

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Hi Jack,

So,did you find a new dog yet ?

Darlene P

Zoso said:

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NB: I'm not thinking about a World Series this year, but in the next few we'll have as good of a shot as anybody. A simple one-and-done this year would be gravy though. Better than nothing.

Brian said:

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Kenny falls in love with a guy and goes what he can to get him...we'll see what happenes but I agree the timing seems odd...

Brian said:

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Heh. meant "does" or "goes out of his way"

Zoso said:

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This is one of those perfect storm situations we need in order to get an elite player. He's a guy whose team wants to trade him, and he's totally under the radar because he's hurt (ankle). And his salary is quite manageable, at least through 3 years. If the 4th year remains as a club option, then it's cool.

Macho Man said:

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Jack, I also live in San Diego and I agree with you. Why in the world would the White Sox give up their best pitching prospects for a guy on the DL? Who may not pitch again this season. This is approaching the fire sale area where the White Sox throw in the towel.

Zoso said:

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They didn't give up their best pitching prospects. Dan Hudson is their best. They really didn't give up anything great. Poreda is a former no. 1 with one pitch, should be a good reliever. Clayton is a 4 at best, likely a 5. The other two are adequate prospects.

FITZ said:

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The Sox gave up way too much for a Pitcher that may not even be able to pitch again this year and may need surgery in the off season. Detroit really was the winner in the Trade Deadline Race by picking up Washburn who is healthy and will be of immediate help. Even if peavy is able to somehow come back by the end of August or early September, Detroit will be so far ahead that the Sox will not be able to catch them. Losing Clayton Richard really hurts the Sox RIGHT NOW! The Sox are left with only three Starting Pitchers in Buehrle, Danks and Floyd. You can not count on Colon coming back and being effective and Contreras is as iffy as ever.

DRTD13 said:

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Zoso, I beg to differ. Hudson is one of their best, but Poreda and Richard are both young and talented enough to develop into front-line starters, especially under the tutelage of Don Cooper. Carter struck out almost 2 per inning in single A, which is obviously a low-competition level but shows great potential. Russell is the only one that doesn't really hurt to lose, though he did a good job last year. I like Peavy for 2010 and beyond, and I think Carlos Torres could be a fine no. 5 starter in the future, but what do we do the rest of this season/until Peavy is healthy? Either lose one of our best bullpen arms in Carrasco or hope for the best from Torres or hope that sweaty Freddy can get healthy (and be effective) in a hurry. I'm afraid Kenny's flushed the Sox's 2009 chances (which were admittedly modest anyway) down the toilet.

RichN said:

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Another reckless trade by Williams. It's beginning to look like he's running a Ponzi scheme. Trying to look good in the present, with the future shot to hell. First he trades away our future outfield, now our future pitching--all for a guy who will probably be out for the year. Plus, the team is little better than a .500 team. Does he think this trade will get them to the World Series? In a couple years when Konerko, Dye, Thome, and Pierzynski are gone, this will be a sad team.

Brian said:

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While I would rather have seen the Sox address the yawning vortex of suck that is CF, I like this trade. The timing is a bit strange, but it's not like Peavy could have pitched any earlier. I am guessing he was going to be shut down in SD because they aren't going anywhere this year. Now that he is a Sox, he can aim to pitch in Sept. Plus, neither the Twins nor the Tigers are going to run away with this division, no matter how hard the schedule is the last two months are for the Sox.

If the Sox don't win the division this year, we have a rotation of Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, and Floyd next year and that's pretty sweet.

This looks like another good trade by Kenny. It's nice to see that people are starting to realize that he is one of the best GMs in the game.

scottstuff777 said:

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Kenny Williams makes another trade with potential disaster waiting in the wings. The biggest issue with the Peavy trade is the ankle injury. The Tribune reports it was a a torn right tibialis tendon. I had the same injury two years ago. If it is torn, it doen't just heal. It requires surgery. Even if he just strained it, the tendon won't just bounce back. I had a 50% tear,and elected not to have surgery. and wore the boot and a brace, and it still swells up and stiffens if I do too much walking. My point in all this is that this injury could affect the Sox for the rest of this year and maybe next season. I agree that Kenny Williams seems to fall in love with a deal or player, and then a year later still goes after that player. Did Ozzie have personal issues with Clayton Richards? He just started to pitch well. Now we a tough August schedule, and who's the fifth starter? Colon? Caressco? Abbott? Costello?

UGODOG said:

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Jack..no team should ever draft or trade for an injury.. This is an idiot trade,,Kenny Williams owns this one.. He doesn't have Rollie Hemond to bail him out.. Sox have no defense you can't win with no defense.... Peavy?!..Hey! Kenny maybe you can get Prior if you like injured players so much.... KW U was ROBBED by SD!! 2 STUPID!

Matt Lo Cascio said:

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I have mixed feelings. Peavy could be the new Rich Harden -- plenty of stuff but never healthy enough to log a lot of innings or on the DL, or he could win another Cy. I don't think too much of any of the players in the deal with the possible exception being Poreda. Even then he needs another pitch. I guess we'll see what happens!

Jack McDowell said:

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You mention Peavy logging innings. he has passed 200 only three times. 203, 204 and his Cy year at 230. He throws a lot of pitches and won't be an innings eater in the American League even if healthy.

rustysurf83 said:

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This trade makes plenty of sense...what did we give up? Poreda has an unbelievable fastball but nothing to go with it. Clayton will probably top out at a 3rd of fourth starter (although he will do very well in the NL and Petco). Carter is 23 and in A ball & Russell will never be anything more than a mid-relief type. On the other hand you have a rotation of Buehrle, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and maybe Torres or Hudson through 2011. If Peavy can come back this year and the Sox are still in it, great. If not, the rotation should absolutely dominate the AL Central for the next two years.

Jack McDowell said:

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Poreda is 22 years old. Many college pitchers are 22 when they are drafted! if he was in college with his stuff he would be considered a stud. A lefthanded starter power pitcher? That is what everyone searches for. He's been able to cruise with one dominant pitch and chances are he'll get his other stuff going and have an amazing career. Richard has a few years on Poreda but seems to have figured some things out. There's always a learning curve with guys over their first full year. he was doing fine. I know we'll see, but the "trade deadline" always garners more give than take than the offseason does. What about Detroit adding Washburn, a proven American League pitcher? This move doesn't guarantee anything for the Sox except they're willing to gamble.

rustysurf83 said:

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Bottom line is that no one that Sox traded has proved anything yet whereas Peavy has won a Cy Young. I have no doubt that Poreda and Richard will both turn out very well in Petco and the NL, but they won't be comparable to Jake Peavy either this year, next year, and probably the year after that. A rotation of Peavy, Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks in the playoffs is pretty tough to beat. Everyone knows the AL Central is weak and will probably come down to the wire...hopefully Peavy is ready to go by then. We really only lose 2 or 3 Clayton Richard starts if Peavy can go by 1 Sep., I'm pretty confident that Torres can win at least 1, hopefully 2 (which is what I would've expected from Richard). You're right that it doesn't guarantee anything for the Sox, but the minor league guys we traded away didn't 'guarantee' anything either. KW is willing to gamble, and this is a bet I'm willing to take.

Jack McDowell said:

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It seems you are giving up on two young lefthanders pretty early saying they'll never get to Peavy's level. Did you notice Cliff Lee's first start over in the National League? There's a reason the All-Star game has been such a joke over the last decade. I guess we'll just wait and see.

Alligator Derski said:

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Yeah, Richard and Poreda have a big upside, but realistically the best you could hope for either of them is to become the caliber pitcher of Peavy. The odds are against that happening, and while it is possible, we know for sure Peavy is a stud. Also, he may be injured now, but that is short term and injuries can happen to anyone, including the pitchers we just traded.

The big picture is having an amazing rotation that will keep you in every ballgame next year and a shut down 1,2,3 for the playoffs. This was a smart trade and you can't judge it right now.

Jack McDowell said:

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I have said, I don't mind getting Peavy. He is an upgrade to all pitchers but about 10 in the Bigs. I still don't understand the timing and the number of guys we gave up all things considered. And if we can't judge this move right now, then what the hell am I supposed to talk about, more Obama?! You'll like this story. Yesterday my wife's friend came over with her dog, a Portuguese water dog. As you know they're rare. Anyway, our friends mother was the breeder of the dog, obviously along with other ones as well. Guess where the Prez got his pooch from? Yeah, I'm now friends with the President's dog's breeder's daughter and swam in my pool with the President's dog's long lost brother! Thought you'd appreciate that one.

Alligator Derski said:

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Haha! That's hilarious and I do appreciate that. I'm not sure I like those kind of dogs, but I've never met one.What did you think of the beast? I promise I won't complain about how no one wants to hear your opinion on dogs!

Jack McDowell said:

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I'm a lover of all things cute, so I'm a bit biased, but those are good dogs. He's very playful and super smart. A funny mutt! She had him shaved so he looks just like a lab without all the curls.

Rick S said:

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Gotta admit, your take on this seems rather contradictory Jack. After going off on how prospects are only prospects, you're ready to rip this deal apart before Peavy throws a pitch. You rest your argument on the fact that we are going to miss our number five from the rotation for several starts. A rather specious argument at best.

First off, there's no doubt this may be more a trade for next year than this year. But we all know the Sox aren't going to get very far this year with their hack fielding. However, getting an elite starter like this, when you have the opporturnity to do it, I don't see how you can wait. Maybe no one is in the Peavy hunt now, but we don't know what happens in the offseason. We do know that Peavy likes to hit and would probably have prefered to stay in the NL.

The second thing is getting a guy on the DL. Now, if Williams didn't perform his due dilegence and KNOW that this injury Peavy has is nearly healed and not the kind that ruins a career, he is completely irresponsible and insane. Could KW toss away $50m of Jerry's money for a guy who's hurt. I think Williams likes his job and wants to keep it.

It seems as though Williams has his bases covered a bit, even in the short term. The Sox can go to a four-man rotation for the next two weeks. They have two off days coming up that will keep our four guys on five days rest. Then, we may need Colon to step in for one or two starts before Peavy is, presumably, ready in late August. After the Angels, we have a fairly soft stretch of teams coming up. By the time Peavy is projected to be ready, we move back into the meat grinder portion of the season -- at which point, we have this new, stud pitcher in the rotation. Buerhle especially has to look at this fondly, knowing he's not expected to be the designated number one of the staff. This should take some pressure off of him.

So the deal really seems to hinge on missing a handful or less of potential quality starts. What were the real odds Richard was going to give us those? While Richard was very, very solid his last two times out, his previous eight starts were subpar and we all we're talking about sending the kid back to the bullpen.

In the end, who knows what the upside on Richard and Poreda may be? But are these rooks going to project better THIS YEAR, which seems to be Jack's major concerns. Having a (granted HEALTHY) Peavy in a potential playoff game or when the season is on the line seems preferable to Richard. That would seem obvious to anyone, especially to a guy who was once an elite pitcher himself.

Jack McDowell said:

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First off, the post you're referring to was concerning the "can't miss" prospect tag which I believe is thrown around far too much. I do believe that "prospects are only prospects" as you say but I just feel the timing of the deal was weird and we gave up far more than we would have had to. If this deal was made for next year then why did we do it now and why give up 4 guys, two of which are top guys? That's my point. Peavy was going to be shut down for the year with the Padres. How the hell would his stock magically gone up during that time? And if Peavy was willing to waive his no-trade to come here, why would he change his mind in the offseason. There truly aren't many National League teams who would have been in a position to take on his contract whom he would have waived for. I just don't get the timing. Now if he gets healthy and goes 5-0 and the Sox win by one game, I'll eat crow. And if this trade is for next year, where are all the hack fielders magically going to disappear to? They gave up way more than they had to.

Rick S said:

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I can only go by what they're saying, which is that he'll be on the mound by late August. If he doesn't pitch this year, then yes, the timing is odd.

Did they give up too much? I'm sure KW must have floated the idea of Richard OR Poreda, wouldn't you think? The Phillies seemed to be able to get Lee for less but though Lee may be every bit the pitcher Peavy ever will be, Peavy is 28 and falls into the pitching-life-span grid with Buerhle, Danks and Floyd. Besides, the Indians would never let us have Lee.

The Tigers for Washburn trade is the "just win now baby" trade that it seems you would have been happier with. I think I'd rather have made the Peavy deal over Washburn who's likely just a rent-a-player.

Sox MUST add a CF next year -- none were available at trade time. They need to make Pods a 4th outfielder. Even an upgrade to a guy of Coco Crisp's caliber would be sufficient.

john in cary said:

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bear in mind that lee is a rent-a-player whose contract is up at the end of the year and thus would command a lower "payment".

part-time pariah said:

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how about a carl crawford?

john in cary said:

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Why this deal and why now? Timing, scarcity and a little market knowledge.

Timing... This deal was pulled off with literally 30 seconds to spare. Williams was on the phone with Axelrod and Hahn was on the phone with MLB and they barely got it in under the wire. What enabled that to happen was that the terms had already been discussed and agreed to. There literally wasn't time to change the variables and get this thing done before the waiver deadline.

Scarcity... The number of available pitchers who have made a difference - let alone _can_ make a difference - right now is somewhere around three: Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Jake Peavey. The Indians would never in a million years trade Lee within the division and the Blue Jays GM told Williams that there was nothing in the Sox system that he wanted. That leaves the Sox with one option. By doing the deal now the Sox not only kept themselves from having to bid against other ballclubs with San Diego, they also kept themselves from having to bid with Peavey. Just because this deal worked now does not mean that it would have worked this winter.

Market knowledge... Buy low and sell high. Remember when everyone was doing the 'Home Alone' face and shouting, "How can you trade Brandon McCarthy for a minor leaguer named John Danks?!?" or "How can you trade THE Freddie Garcia and only get first round draft pick bust in Gavin Floyd?!?"

I think something similar is happening here. Richard is a good but certainly not great pitcher. Poreda still does not have a breaking pitch he can consistently get over for strikes. Adam Russell is a bullpen guy with potential. Not only were none of these guys consistently delivering anything at the big league level, it's more than reasonable to believe that their trade value would never be as high as it is right now.

Finally, think of things in these terms... Imagine we get to the end of the season and the Sox need one win to make the playoffs. Who's more likely to be able to stand the pressure: Jake Peavey or Clayton Richard?

The dude might only be able to pitch a handful of games this season but judging by the way this division is shaping up, that just might be enough.

RichN said:

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Once again, Williams grossly overpays in a trade (see Pena, Swisher, et al). Just read in the San Diego paper that the Pads were most concerned with dumping salary and would have taken "a bag of balls and a rosin bag to be named later" (or at least Carter and Russell only). The San Diego front office is smirking because they know they made a steal.
I know you sometimes you have to overpay, but not when there are no other suitors. Williams got taken because he didn't do his due diligence in knowing the Padres financial woes.
It makes no sense that he made the same offer that he did in May--when other teams were in the hunt for Peavy AND he was healthy.

rustysurf83 said:

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I don't care what you read in the paper...there's no way you get a Cy Young winner locked up through 2012 for a 23 year old in A ball and a guy destined to be a bullpen mop up/middle relief type. If that were true Peavy would've been out of SD long before we made the first offer. You don't think NYY would've gave them two low prospects? Don't believe everything you read in the paper.

Jack McDowell said:

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If Peavy wanted to go to NY, he never would have signed the extension he did in the first place. This whole thing is about WHICH team or teams he would waive his no trade clause for. There's much more top the story that you're addressing.

part-time pariah said:

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overpaying by giving up an over-hyped 4th started, a one pitch 'prospect', crappy filler, and an overhyped A-ball pitcher? i think not. i'm not happy about sucking up all his salary, but the only way this deal turns out bad is if peavy doesn't produce.

part-time pariah said:

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i'd also like to point out that peavy is a 4-5 WAR pitcher, whereas richard, and poreda were league average...at best 2 WAR.

time will tell us who the 'winner' of the trade is.

palehoze said:

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Black Jack, i'm surprised at your surprise over the timing of this deal. As one of the more competitive players I ever saw put on a Sox uni, I would think you would like this deal if you were currently on the team. Peavy comes back at the end of this month to help the Sox win the division, and then after they win the division the rotation is Buehrle, Peavy, Floyd, Danks for the playoffs. That is as good as it gets for a top 4. This gives the Sox a legit playoff chance and makes them better for the next couple years. I'm not sure what you dislike about it.

Jack McDowell said:

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Not bummed about getting peavy one bit. He just threw his first bullpen session in 6 weeks yesterday. If you expect him to be the real Jake Peavy in three weeks you're kidding yourself. There is NO WAY he'll be ready to pitch at the level you're expecting in three weeks. He's gonna have to get his arm back, get game ready which means a few minor league starts, and then build back into big league game shape. Sound great on paper. But like I said, the timing seems weird. But I guess it's a gamble they were worth taking for the future.

john in cary said:

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at what point would the fact that he hasn't thrown that many innings this year become an asset instead of a liability? October?

Jack McDowell said:

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Not sure. The whole thing with pitching an entire season is to build up to have your body expected to go a certain amount of time. Otherwise if it was just about rest then say, the Dodgers would shut down their starters until the Giants close the gap a bit. That's why teams don't do that because it's a helluva lot easier to keep rhythm and repeat performances when you're in shape to do so. We'll just have to see how quick he can respond and get sharp. Think about it this way, he just threw his first BULLPEN session. He has to throw a few more off the mound before he is ready for games. Then he will have to build back his innings during those starts...which are 5 days apart. So, when he finally makes that first start it will be at least 15-20 days until you see him on the mound at Comiskey. And that's pushing it! We'll just have to see how he is.

RichN said:

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I don't believe everything I read in the newspaper, numb nuts. The point I was trying to make was that the Padres GM was mandated by ownership to dump salary big time by the end of the year. They were so desperate to trade Peavy, they would have taken a lot less than what Williams gave.

Plus it's always a good idea to see how the other team views the trade.

Jack McDowell said:

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Congrats! For all the name calling we've had on this blog, you have dropped the first "numbnuts!" Actually something that is seen as bad but probably would be beneficial for bad hops.

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